On October 4th, local time, EU member states voted and passed the proposal of the European Commission to impose tariffs on electric vehicles in China.
Tan learned that 10 EU member states voted in favor, 12 abstained, and Germany, Hungary, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia voted against it.
Before the vote, Reuters was "airing views", and France, Italy, Poland and Greece will vote for it.
According to EU rules, two conditions must be met when the proposal is shelved — — Fifteen member States need to vote against it, and the number of opponents needs to reach 65% of the total population of the European Union. The combined population of France, Italy, Poland and Greece has reached 39% of the total population of the EU. That is to say, even if other countries are opposed, the total population is only 61%, which is still below the standard line of 65%.
Faced with this result, people familiar with the matter told Tan Zhu:
Not long ago, when Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao visited Europe, the European side showed its political will and was still willing to continue the talks. The European side also said that even the final ruling would not affect the continuation of the talks with China. China is in the attitude of consultation, and hopes to move in the opposite direction with the European side. Many issues can also be discussed. However, if the political will of the European side is only verbal and not reflected in action, it will be difficult to talk about it.
China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products has been playing the role of the industry defender since the European Commission initiated a countervailing investigation on electric vehicles in China. The person in charge of the Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products also went to Europe for many times to attend relevant hearings, and exchanged views with governments and professionals in many EU countries.
The head of the Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products said that many EU member states voted in favor of imposing tariffs on China in order to "force" China enterprises to invest in Europe in this way.
In fact, from the argument mentioned by the European side that "even the final ruling will not affect the continuation of talks with China", we can see this kind of thinking of the European side — — I hope to reserve the "power" to launch unreasonable investigations, but I am also worried that I will lose my face and lose the opportunity to introduce China’s capital and technology.
China’s attitude towards these small thoughts is also very clear. If it supports taxation, it will lose investment.
The industry made it clear that:
You can’t have your cake and eat it. An open and fair market environment is the most favorable factor to attract investment. The EU cannot impose tariffs on China products and expect China enterprises to invest and cooperate in Europe at the same time.
Tan Zhu has mentioned before that the European side has always taken reducing tariffs as a "bargaining chip" in negotiations, but the amount of tariffs is not the key point. The act of collecting tariffs itself is the key point.
The European side imposed tariffs on the grounds that China enterprises enjoyed "unfair subsidies". As long as tariffs were imposed, subsidies were recognized. Even if the tariff rate is lower, as long as the subsidy is recognized, the European side can use other means to suppress China enterprises.
These means, including the Regulations on Foreign Subsidies, even create some new means and regulations.
Therefore, after seeing the voting results, China also took a clear-cut stand.
What does it mean to support tariffs and lose investment?
We must know that the electrification transformation of European cars has not gone smoothly.
The data shows that this year, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in Europe has slowed down. One of the important reasons why European consumers are unwilling to choose electric vehicles is that the competitiveness of electric vehicles produced by European car companies is obviously backward.
The European Union has formulated a ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035, and electrification is the direction that European car companies have to choose.
However, the electrification of European car companies faces two problems. First, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the labor required for manufacturing electric car parts is only half of the former. In other words, turning to electrification will bring employment problems.
Second, the current cultivation of electric vehicle market in Europe is not ideal, and European car companies have great advantages in the research and development and production of fuel vehicles, which leads to some hesitation and hesitation of European car companies.
As a result, European car companies have made double investments in fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. But we must know that the research and development of electric vehicles is also very expensive.
Under such circumstances, there are only two ways to save European car companies:
｜｜First, on the premise of ensuring the product strength, reduce the R&D and production costs as much as possible;
｜｜Second, the European electric vehicle market has grown rapidly and there has been an obvious market shift.
Both of these situations are inseparable from one condition — —Cooperate with China..
At this point, European car companies are far more clear than European politicians.
Previously, the chairman of BMW Group publicly stated many times that the imposition of tariffs would not only hit German automakers, but also intensify trade frictions between China and Europe, and even trigger a "trade dispute that no one can benefit from". The person in charge of Mercedes-Benz has repeatedly expressed opposition to the imposition of tariffs.
Just one day before the EU vote, BMW made a new move — — It is reported that BMW has ruled out the possibility of participating in the next round of financing of Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt.
Beifu Company was once regarded as "the promising star of new energy in Europe". In 2020, before Beifu officially started production, BMW signed a long-term contract with it worth 2 billion euros. Subsequently, a number of European car companies, including Volkswagen, reached a contract with them of more than 55 billion US dollars.
Not only did they give orders, but these car companies also became investors of Beifu Company and participated in the investment in the company.
The German government also has high hopes for it, and this year, the German government provided it with assistance of up to 900 million euros.
But the result is that Beifu Company has been "jumping tickets", first of all, the delivery time is delayed, and the battery quality is also problematic. Under such circumstances, BMW plans not to participate in the investment of Beifu Company.
From the perspective of Europe’s electrification transformation, Europe needs China more.
If you support taxation, you will lose investment and lose the opportunity of electrification transformation.
These things, European countries have to think clearly.
Within Europe, there are many voices of opposition. Germany is one of them. Since the European Commission launched an unreasonable investigation on China’s electric vehicles, Germany has been running for opposing the EU’s tariff on China’s electric vehicles.
According to the disclosure, a few days before the vote, the German Chancellor has been communicating with other European leaders, repeatedly stressing that if the EU really imposes tariffs on China’s electric vehicles, the consequences will be very serious.
Not only the German government, but also the German industry is actively speaking out. On October 3rd, representatives of German trade unions and employees in the industry publicly issued a "joint opposition statement", clearly opposing the EU’s tariff increase on electric vehicles in China, saying that this "wrong way" will not solve the EU’s own problems.
In an internal vote in July, Germany abstained. This time, Germany clearly voted against it. Earlier, Malta, Hungary, Slovakia and Cyprus voted against it.
Not long ago, Spanish officials also called on the EU to solve the problem through negotiations.
Germany’s opposition is the highest, precisely because Germany has cooperated more with China in the automobile field and benefited more.
This vote is still some time away from the final ruling. For both China and Europe, it is still possible to solve the problem through negotiations.
This period of time is not only the time for Germany, which opposes taxation, to continue to work in other EU countries, but also the last window for those EU countries that voted in favor to seize the opportunity of new energy transformation. Can they grasp it?It depends on these countries themselves..
Master Tan learned that on October 7th, China and Europe will hold a new round of negotiations. Before talking, the European side needs to show sincerity and action.
